Luftmakt och okonventionella konflikter : En teoretisk studie av Papes luftmaktsteori

The utility of airpower in attaining victory in conflicts is widely debated. Scholars promote very different approaches but there is agreement regarding direct attack on military forces, when faced with guerrilla tactics. By employing a denial strategy, airpower may contribute positive effects to the combat zone. This thesis studies traditional airpower theory and its application in intense unconventional conflict. The purpose of this study is to examine and test military coercion by denial, a theory founded by Robert Pape, in a comparative case study of Operation Change of Direction and Operation Cast Lead. It is motivated by the similarity of preferred attributes in the theory and research regarding unconventional conflict. This paper will argue that Pape´s theory can explain the outcome of the cases, mainly due to the extensive use of direct support to ground forces in both operations. Strategic and operational interdiction appear to have less decisive effect on the result. Military coercion does not work in unconventional conflict. In general, this is in line with previous research. The study supports the theory regarding the unconventional context, and advocates its application as a part of the decision cycle.