Complementary Differences in Primary Production and Phenology among Vegetation Types Increase Ecosystem Resilience to Climate Change and Grazing Pressure in an Iconic Mediterranean Ecosystem

Plant primary production is a key factor in ecosystem dynamics. In environments with high climatic variability such as the Mediterranean region, plant primary production shows strong seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations, which both drive and interplay with herbivore grazing. Knowledge on the responses of different vegetation types to the variability in both rainfall and grazing pressure by wild and domestic ungulates is a necessary starting point for the sustainable management of these ecosystems. In this work we combine a 15 year series of remote sensing data on plant production (NDVI) with meteorological (daily precipitation data) and ungulate abundance (annual counts of four species of wild and domestic ungulates: red deer, fallow deer, cattle, and horses) in an iconic protected area (the Doñana National Park, SW Spain) to (i) estimate the impact of intra- and inter-annual variation in rainfall and herbivore pressure on primary production, for each of four main vegetation types; and (ii) evaluate the potential impact of different policy (i.e., herbivore management) strategies under expected climate change scenarios. Our results show that the production of different vegetation types differed strongly in their responses to phenology (a surrogate of the effect of climatology on vegetation development), water availability (rainfall accumulated until the phenological peak), and grazing pressure. Although the density of domestic ungulates shows a linear, negative effect on the primary production of three of the four vegetation types, differences in primary production and phenology among vegetation types increase ecosystem resilience to both climatological variability and grazing pressure. Such resilience may, however, be reduced under the conditions predicted by climate change models, if the moderate predicted reduction in rainfall levels combines with moderate to high densities of domestic ungulates, resulting in important reductions in primary production that may compromise plant regeneration, leading to irreversible degradation. New management strategies taking advantage of habitat heterogeneity and phenological alternation, more flexible stocking rates, and the redistribution of management units should be considered to mitigate these effects. The use of available remote sensing data and techniques in combination with statistical models represents a valuable tool for developing, monitoring, and refining such strategies.Peer reviewe