Real-time numerical forecasting of global epidemic spread

The mathematical formulation of epidemic spreading processes has a history spanning almost three centuries. However, the applicability of early models is restricted to the study of theoretical aspects of disease propagation or to very limited geographical contexts. The situation has changed drastically in recent years thanks to the abundance of data that new technologies provide about human mobility and the ability that computers bring to incorporate such information into models. In this presentation, we will review the latest developments in the area with a special emphasis on explaining the philosophy of the computational methodologies employed to describe the type of data needed to forecast spreading patterns, and the potential of simulation techniques to produce different levels of information on the spread of epidemics. As practical examples, we will focus on the modeling of influenza, including the 2009 pandemic, and also on more recent efforts to characterize the propagation risks of Ebola and Zika.Fundación BBVAN