Does Environmental Policy Affect Green Total Factor Productivity? Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on China’s Air Pollution Control and Prevention Action Plan

It is the scientific way to promote the transformation and optimization of an industrial structure to promote the improvement of its green total factor productivity (GTFP) by formulating environmental regulation policies. Based on the GTFP panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2017, this paper takes the “Air Pollution Control and Prevention Action Plan” (APCP Action Plan) as the proxy dummy variable of environmental regulation, and uses the difference-in-differences (DID) model to explore the impact of the implementation of the APCP Action Plan on GTFP. In addition, by constructing the industrial structure optimization index, this paper analyzes how the APCP Action Plan policy affects GTFP through the transformation and optimization of industrial structure. The following basic conclusions are obtained: First, environmental regulation policies like the APCP Action Plan can improve GTFP. Second, the APCP Action Plan has regional heterogeneity in promoting GTFP in different regions. The policy only significantly affects the GTFP in the Pearl River Delta region in southern China. Third, the “quantity” and “quality” of the optimization of industrial structure will weaken the promoting effect of the APCP Action Plan on GTFP. In contrast, the rationalization of industrial structure will aggravate this promoting effect