A Model to Evaluate the Effect of Urban Road Pricing on Traffic Speed and Congestion in Madrid City Center and Its Surrounding

Currently, traffic intensity in large cities and their surroundings constitute the main unsustainability factor associated with urban transport, leading to significant traffic speed reduction due to high levels of congestion. Road pricing seems to be a measure of transport policy capable of improving efficiency and sustainability in urban transport, reducing traffic intensity and increasing traffic speed, as reflected in the main road pricing indicators currently in operation (Singapore, London, Stockholm, Milan…). Based on the data obtained through a mobility survey applied to a theoretical design of road pricing for the city of Madrid, we developed a traffic speed forecast model using time series analysis, to which we applied the mobility survey results. The research results show that theoretical urban road pricing could imply very significant positive effects in traffic speed increase and congestion reduction, fundamentally in the city center and metropolitan crown, as well as demonstrating positive effects in the improvement of traffic speed in those municipalities furthest from the urban center. Moreover, our findings reveal that road pricing would allow an average traffic speed increase in the protected area of the city center during the operating hours of between 10% and 32.5%: 15.9% in the metropolitan crown, 10% in M-30, and 32.5% in the case of Madrid’s city center