Seismotectonic analysis of the Viraayots–Karabakh zone (Armenia) and the adjacent areas of Lesser Caucasus

The territory of Armenia, although relatively small, is geologically and tectonically complex. Its complexity is not only due to a dense network of faults. It results from a complicated history of tectonic development including several phases of mountain formation and planation, and the extensive development of fold-block, tectonic and magmatic processes. An important scientific task is identification of earthquake-prone structural blocks by analysing seismotectonic data on geotectonic zones in Armenia. This article describes the seismotectonic analysis of geological and geophysical data on the Viraayots-Karabakh zone.We used a wide spectrum of modern tectonic-geomorphological indices and GIS technologies in order to assess the neotectonic (Neogene – Quaternary) activity of the main block units of the study area and to classify the block units by their tectonic activity levels. Tectonics of the study area is contrasting, and many tectonically active blocks are in the immediate neighbourhood with passive blocks.Based on the records of seismic events of various magnitudes and historic earthquake data, we analysed modern seismicity of the block units. For each block, a quantitative analysis of its total seismic energy release was performed, and relationships between the released seismic energy values and the number of recorded earthquakes were analyzed. Based on such analysis, we identify a group of blocks wherein the total released seismic energy values are high, but the numbers of seismic events recorded in these blocks are rather limited. In the context of block tectonic activity, analysing these data makes it possible to detect the blocks with the highest probability of the occurrence of strong earthquakes