Demand for ‘advantaged’ hydrocarbons during the 21st century energy transition

At present, crude oil and natural gas comprise ∼54.3% of the global energy supply. Rapidly replacing this with lower carbon sources is challenging, resulting in oil and gas forming a significant part of the energy mix in future predictions, even in scenarios that strive to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. To assess the likely future demand, an analysis of multiple, recently published, rapid energy transition scenarios was conducted, indicating that 943.3 Bbbl of oil and 4,733.5 Tcf of gas will be required in the next three decades. Furthermore, analysis of different supply estimates indicates that 357.1–284.1 Bbbl of oil and 2,274.6–2,170.2 Tcf of gas will need to be found to complement existing recoverable reserves. To meet this demand will require the exploration and production of low carbon intensity ‘advantaged hydrocarbons’, combined with significant carbon sequestration activity. As hydrocarbon recovery becomes more difficult and energy intensive with time, it may be preferable to replace some existing ‘disadvantaged’ fields with new ‘advantaged’ hydrocarbons, implying the supply gap may be underestimated. Energy strategy at a national and global level must account for the large demand for hydrocarbons in coming decades and exploration and production companies need to align with the advantaged hydrocarbon paradigm. Stimulus is required to realise the carbon capture and storage capacity required to mitigate the consequences of the ongoing reliance on fossil fuels