Fuzzy logic modeling software for educational paths data analysis

Recent trends in the global education system are leading to the increasing competition in the field of higher education, which represent a big challenge for the universities participating in major rankings such as QS and THE. To improve the efficiency of the University, it is necessary to adjust its educational trajectories and programs in such a way as to meet the expectations of the student and the needs of the labor market. To describe the individual choice of the educational path, we used an econometric model, which takes into account the economic motivation of a potential student. Based on this model, we made a reasonable forecast of the future professional choice of students and their future income. After evaluating the amount of possible alternative educational paths for students, we made an estimation of the probability of a student changing of educational path using fuzzy logic model of Mamdani type. According to this approach, the probability of changing the educational trajectory for the student is calculated based on panel data, taking into account the amount of possible directions of graduation and educational paths of the student, the possibility of budgetary support of the graduation and the expected level of wages after graduation. To estimate the probability we developed a set of rules of the fuzzy inference system, designed to simulate the human behavior of making the decision of change between one and another educational path. The proposed architecture of the educational process analysis system (EPAS) provides educational institutions with the opportunity to establish business rules in accordance with their own needs. Based on this model, it is possible to analyze the impact of students' choice on the economic sectors development. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract N 02.A03.21.0006