FORECASTING INVENTORY LEVELS WITH MARKOV MODELS FOR THE ACQUISITION AND CONTRACTING SUBSPECIALTY (1306) IN THE SUPPLY CORPS

The U.S. Navy Supply Corps consists of officers with subspecialties (SSP) that are required to fill certain billets. Manpower planners are tasked with ensuring that the community trains and qualifies officers in each SSP to keep the Supply Corps healthy and able to fill all critical billets. Navy Supply Systems Command Office of Personnel has stated that the Acquisition and Contracting SSP (1306) is the most “at risk” for not having enough qualified personnel to fill the O-6 billets. This MBA project develops and employs Markov models to create a 10-year 1306 inventory forecast for FY22 through FY31. We use a fixed inventory model to determine the number of accessions needed to achieve 1306 end-strength goals, a fixed recruitment model that determines a projected end-strength by an accession policy, and a steady-state model that shows inventory levels of each state when the system reaches equilibrium. Finally, we demonstrate how changing transition rates and accessions can help manpower planners develop courses of action to meet manpower requirements. Through the employment of the Markov models, we find that if the average number of accessions continue with the current transitions rates, then the SC will never be able to meet their planning goals. The models prove to be a useful tool for manpower planners; therefore, we recommend using the models to forecast the 1306 inventory.Lieutenant Commander, United States NavyLieutenant Commander, United States NavyLieutenant Commander, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited