Advanced Earned Value Management: A Proposal for Extending Program Management Theory Through Value Centric Turbulence Flow Methods

Current methods of measuring acquisition project performance are based upon generations of old cost models that compare budgets with expenditures. These methods provide little in the way of forecasting, leaving the project manager to react to past performance rather than making decisions of future potential. The principal means of measuring project performance in large complex projects is earned value management (EVM), which measures actual work performed to budgeted work performed. While this method provides valuable insight into how well a project is doing relative to a predetermined plan, new methods of forecasting when projects begin to become volatile are needed. Knowing when a project will enter a phase of volatility will provide greater transparency and flexibility to decision-makers before critical events have occurred. This paper describes the state of current project management theory and how it has driven the project management community to a point of stagnation. Additionally, this paper will outline a new and innovative approach to forecasting when a project will become volatile long before current EVM and risk management tools can today. This research approach proposed in the paper intends to extend current theory and practice in project management by examining several information systems programs and providing new, more effective decision-making tools for future project managers. The methods defined in this research will be known as advanced earned value management (AEVM).Prepared for the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943.Naval Postgraduate SchoolApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited