An improved clinical model to predict stimulated C-peptide in children with recent-onset type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Stimulated C-peptide measurement after a mixed meal tolerance test (MMTT) is the accepted gold standard for assessing residual beta-cell function in type 1 diabetes (T1D); however, this approach is impractical outside of clinical trials. OBJECTIVE: To develop an improved estimate of residual beta-cell function in children with T1D using commonly measured clinical variables. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A clinical model to predict 90-minute MMTT stimulated C-peptide in children with recent-onset T1D was developed from the combined AbATE, START, and TIDAL placebo subjects (n = 46) 6 months post-recruitment using multiple linear regression. This model was then validated in a clinical cohort (Hvidoere study group, n = 262). RESULTS: A model of estimated C-peptide at 6 months post-diagnosis, which included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and insulin dose predicted 90-minute stimulated C-peptide measurements (adjusted R2 = 0.63, P < 0.0001). The predictive value of insulin dose and HbA1c alone (IDAA1c) for 90-minute stimulated C-peptide was significantly lower (R2 = 0.37, P < 0.0001). The slopes of linear regression lines of the estimated and stimulated 90-minute C-peptide levels obtained at 6 and 12 months post diagnosis in the Hvidoere clinical cohort were R2 = 0.36, P < 0.0001 at 6 months and R2 = 0.37, P < 0.0001 at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: A clinical model including age, gender, BMI, HbA1c, and insulin dose predicts stimulated C-peptide levels in children with recent-onset T1D. Estimated C-peptide is an improved surrogate to monitor residual beta-cell function outside clinical trial settings