A Decision support framework for sustainable urban planning in developing countries

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2021.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Earth has a finite amount of resources; non-renewable materials like coal and oil are being depleted without any regard for their presence in the future. The human populace does not have a sustainable lifestyle. As of December 2020, there are an estimated 7.8 billion human beings on the planet, and by 2050, it is estimated to increase by 2.5 billion inhabitants; 90% of this growth will occur in Asia and Africa. Initially a systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted to uncover the prominent challenges that urban planners face when tackling sustainable practices in developing countries. The starting point of the time frame was set to after the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development’s 2012 Rio+20 global summit. Therefore, only articles that were produced from 1 January 2013 until 31 March 2019 were included, as these would have adhered to the contributions and protocols set forth at this conference, viz., the largest UN Earth Summit, which was held in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, in June 2012. In this study, therefore, a review was conducted of urban planning challenges and sustainable solutions or responses to these. The challenges were then grouped into topics that align with particular types of challenge. Then, the challenges were analysed to identify the well-known and disruptive challenges that restrict urban planners in developing countries. The top three unbiased urban planning challenges found from the SLR were urbanisation, urban sprawl and population growth. Additionally, from the SLR, the tools and techniques that assist urban planners were identified and extensively categorised to differentiate among them. Consequently, 70 solution-specific tools and techniques, which contribute to the analysis and implementation of a sustainable context were determined to identify the best practices for sustainable urban planning. Thereafter, a multi-criteria decision analysis used an analytical hierarchy process to quantify the differences of the tools and techniques with regard to urban system elements and the sustainable development goals. Evolving from the insights gained from the identification of the challenges and the tools and techniques, as well as the multi-criteria decision analysis, a requirements specification was established for a research product to achieve the aim of the study. This led to a functional analysis of the requirements specification to develop a decision support framework (DSF) that would achieve the aim of the research study. Based on this, the Sustainable Urban Planning Assistant Decision Support Framework (SUPA DSF) was designed. Finally, the SUPA DSF was evaluated, which consisted of verification and validation. The verification was made up of two steps, i.e., evaluating the requirements specification, and conducting theoretical verification interviews with subject matter experts. The feedback from the interviews were refined into the SUPA DSF. Lastly, a validation of the SUPA DSF was performed by means of three case studies, one for each of the sustainable urban planning challenges identified in the SLR. These three challenges were urbanisation, urban sprawl and population growth. The SUPA DSF was validated for its relevancy and practicability.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die aarde het ʼn beperkte hoeveelheid hulpbronne; niehernubare materiale soos steenkool en olie word uitgeput sonder inagname van hul noodsaaklikheid in die toekoms. Die mensebevolking voer nie ʼn volhoubare bestaan nie. In Desember 2020 was daar ʼn geraamde 7.8 miljard mense op die planeet. Hierdie syfer sal na raming teen 2050 met 2.5 miljard inwoners styg, met 90% van hierdie groei wat in Asië en Afrika sal plaasvind. ʼn Stelselmatige literatuuroorsig is eerstens in hierdie studie gedoen om die belangrikste uitdagings te identifiseer waarvoor stadsbeplanners te staan kom in die hantering van volhoubare praktyke in ontwikkelende lande. Die beginpunt van die tydraamwerk was ná die 2012 Rio+20-wêreldberaad van die Verenigde Nasies se Konferensie oor Volhoubare Ontwikkeling. Slegs artikels wat vanaf 1 Januarie 2013 tot 31 Maart 2019 geskryf is, is dus by die oorsig ingesluit, aangesien hulle sou voldoen aan die bydraes en protokols wat vir hierdie konferensie, die grootste Verenigde Nasies Aardeberaad, gehou in Rio de Janeiro in Brasilië in Junie 2012, uiteengesit is. ʼn Oorsig is dus uitgevoer van uitdagings vir stadbeplanning en die nodige volhoubare oplossings of reaksies. Die uitdagings is daarna in onderwerpe gegroepeer wat ooreenstem met die spesifieke soorte uitdagings, waarna die uitdagings ontleed is om die bekendste en mees ontwrigtende veranderinge te identifiseer wat stadsbeplanners in ontwikkelende lande kniehalter. Die topdrie- onsydige uitdagings vir stadsbeplanning wat in die literatuuroorsig geïdentifiseer is, was verstedeliking, stadskruip en bevolkingsgroei. Die instrumente en tegnieke wat vir stadsbeplanners van hulp is, is ook uit die oorsig geïdentifiseer, en omvattend gekategoriseer ten einde hulle te onderskei. Sewentig oplossingspesifieke instrumente en tegnieke, wat tot die ontleding en implementering van ʼn volhoubare konteks bydra, is gevolglik bepaal om die beste praktyke vir volhoubare stadsbeplanning te identifiseer. Daarna is ʼn ontledingshiërargieproses vir veelkriteria-besluitontleding gebruik om die verskille tussen die instrumente en tegnieke ten opsigte van stadstelsel-elemente en die Volhoubare Ontwikkelingsdoelwitte te versyfer. Op grond van die insigte verkry uit die identifisering van die uitdagings en die instrumente en tegnieke, asook die veelkriteria-besluitontleding, is ʼn vereistespesifikasie vir ʼn navorsingsproduk bepaal ten einde die doel van die studie te bereik. Dit het gelei tot ʼn funksionele ontleding van die vereistespesifikasie om ʼn besluitsteunraamwerk te ontwikkel. Die Sustainable Urban Planning Assistant Decision Support Framework (SUPA DSF) is op grond hiervan ontwerp. Laastens is die SUPA DSF geëvalueer, welke proses uit verifikasie en geldigheidsbepaling bestaan het. Die verifikasie het twee stappe behels, naamlik evaluering van die vereistespesifikasie en uitvoer van teoretiese verifikasie-onderhoude met vakkundiges. Die terugvoering van die onderhoude is gebruik om die SUPA DSF te verfyn. Die geldigheidsbepaling van die SUPA DSF is uitgevoer deur drie gevallestudies, een vir elk van die uitdagings vir volhoubare stadsbeplanning wat in die literatuuroorsig geïdentifiseer is. Die geldigheid van die SUPA DSF is bepaal met betrekking tot die relevansie en uitvoerbaarheid daarvan.Master