Demographic and social factors in the prediction of reoffending

296 subjects, who were convicted of a criminal offence in the Christchurch District Court, during June to July in 1986, were asked by their Probation Officer to fill in a Social History and Demographic Questionnaire. The Questionnaire gathered information on the subjects age, sex, race, offending history, family and work stability and status, and substance abuse. The results from the Questionnaire are compared with the subjects offending behaviour within in a twelve month follow up period from when the Questionnaire was completed. Using discriminant analysis a number of interesting trends emerge from the data with respect to reoffending. Most notably was the impnct that increased age has on reoffending, giving weight to the theory that offenders tend to burnout with age. Different variables appear to be operating between the sexes and reoffending; for females, interpersonal variables such as relationship stability are the key factors and for males the discriminating variables reflect the subcult nature of habitual offenders; poor education, lack of work stability, drug abuse and gang affiliation. The second part of the study examined the effectiveness of the Probation Officers to predict whether the subjects would reoffend. The combination of the Questionnaire and the Probation Officers judgement proved to be the most powerful method of predicting reoffending