Spatiotemporal change and drivers analysis of desertification in the arid region of northwest China based on geographic detector

The arid region of northwest China is a hotspot for global desertification research, because it is affected by the combined effects of climate change and human activities, and it has had a huge impact on human society in recent years. Based on multiple meteorological and spatial attribute data sets, NDVI-Albedo feature space principle and geographic detectors were used to analyze the main drivers to the spatiotemporal changes of desertification in the arid region of northwest China from 2003 to 2018. The results are shown that: (1) The area of severe desertification in the arid region of northwestern China shows a downward trend, and the area of high desertification and non-desertification regions increases correspondingly, the area of medium and low desertification remains basically unchanged. The desertification divided index (DDI) is the highest in the mid-altitude region. The DDI of middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River has the fastest rising rate, due to the impact of human agricultural activities and ecological water conveyance. (2) According to the analysis results of the geographic detector model, precipitation is the main factor driving the spatial distribution of desertification, especially the interpretive ability of the interaction between land use and precipitation is more than 50% for the spatial distribution of DDI. Land use change and its interaction with other factors have the highest degree of explanation for desertification changes. Therefore, human activities, especially land use and ecological water conservancy projects, are the most important factors to improve desertification in the arid area of northwest China. This study provides a scientific basis for agricultural management and ecological engineering construction in arid region