Scenario Simulation of the Impact of China’s Free-Trade Zone Construction on Regional Sustainable Development: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Regional sustainable development is a complex process driven by multiple factors, such as the economy, society, and environment. China has made a series of major adjustments and devised plans, including the establishment of a pilot free-trade zone, to promote regional sustainable development. The pilot free-trade zone, characterized by free trade and the opening up of institutions, changes the path and mode of regional sustainable development to a certain extent. However, an effective empirical quantitative analysis to verify the impact of the pilot free-trade zone on regional sustainable development is lacking. This paper employs the system dynamics method to predict the social–economic–environmental development trends and key control factors of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration by considering the unique advantages of system dynamics. The construction of a pilot free-trade zone was set as a control variable to analyze its promoting effect on regional sustainable development. Next, the most suitable model for sustainable development for the future was determined. The results indicate that the construction of the pilot free-trade zone led to significant growth in indicators such as import and export trade, total economic volume, income, and labor force, all of which are conducive to regional sustainable development. Practically, the simulation results provide decision support for promoting the sustainable development of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration