We construct a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with three layers of information: the key drivers of inflation, cross-country dynamic interactions, and country-specific variables. The model provides good forecasting accuracy with respect to the popular benchmarks used in the literature. We perform a step-by-step analysis to shed light on which layer of information is more crucial for accurately forecasting medium-run euro area inflation. Our empirical analysis reveals the importance of including the key drivers of inflation and taking into account the multi-country dimension of the euro area. The results show that the complete model performs better overall in forecasting inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food over the medium te...
This paper uses a large data set, consisting of 447 monthly macroeconomic time series concerning the...
In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 20 member countries. How...
This paper examines the problem of forecasting macro-variables which are observed monthly (or quarte...
This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the E...
We compare models for forecasting growth and inflation in the enlarged euro area. Forecasts are bui...
In this paper we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro area tha...
We compare models for forecasting growth and inflation in the enlarged euro area. Forecasts are buil...
In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflati...
In this Paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflati...
In this paper, we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro Area th...
Economic agents and financial authorities require frequent updates to a path of accurate inflation f...
Economic agents and financial authorities require frequent updates to a path of accurate inflation f...
In this paper, we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro Area th...
We develop a small model for forecasting inflation for the euro area using quarterly data over the p...
We develop a small model for forecasting inflation for the euro area using quarterly data over the p...
This paper uses a large data set, consisting of 447 monthly macroeconomic time series concerning the...
In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 20 member countries. How...
This paper examines the problem of forecasting macro-variables which are observed monthly (or quarte...
This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the E...
We compare models for forecasting growth and inflation in the enlarged euro area. Forecasts are bui...
In this paper we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro area tha...
We compare models for forecasting growth and inflation in the enlarged euro area. Forecasts are buil...
In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflati...
In this Paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflati...
In this paper, we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro Area th...
Economic agents and financial authorities require frequent updates to a path of accurate inflation f...
Economic agents and financial authorities require frequent updates to a path of accurate inflation f...
In this paper, we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro Area th...
We develop a small model for forecasting inflation for the euro area using quarterly data over the p...
We develop a small model for forecasting inflation for the euro area using quarterly data over the p...
This paper uses a large data set, consisting of 447 monthly macroeconomic time series concerning the...
In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 20 member countries. How...
This paper examines the problem of forecasting macro-variables which are observed monthly (or quarte...