Infrastructure for sustainable development

The long-term planning of infrastructure systems will be crucial in the quest for sustainable global development given the role it can play in achieving a wide range of social, economic, and environmental outcomes. While there is an increasing body of research addressing the need for global investment in infrastructure, there remains a gap in aligning the infrastructure planning process with performance outcomes defined by the global development agendas: the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change. This thesis develops an interdependent modelling approach for national infrastructure that links specific investments and policies to progress toward development and climate targets. As part of this approach, a robust indicator set aligned with the SDGs is developed. In addition, a systematic process to define infrastructure portfolios – or ‘strategies’ – to meet desired outcomes, is outlined. Two country case studies are used to demonstrate and apply these methods in the context of addressing key development challenges. In the first, a 28 percent decline in average SDG achievement across infrastructure-linked targets by 2030 is estimated in the absence of interventions in the energy, water, wastewater, and solid waste sectors. In the second, a feasible path to achieve SDG and Paris targets is demonstrated using a portfolio of strategic interventions in these four sectors, arrived at through an interdependent planning process drawing on participatory methods. Furthermore, at the global scale, a means of aligning mitigation action in infrastructure and land use sectors – defined by each country’s Nationally-Determined Contributions – with a range of development outcomes defined by the SDGs is developed, illustrating the contextual approach required for national infrastructure planning. This is particularly relevant given the lack of quantified ambition in the current commitments of the 195 signatories to the agreement: 23 percent of countries report no quantified sectoral targets across the energy, transport, waste, agriculture, and forestry sectors, and a further 16 percent define only qualitative targets. The studies contained in this thesis contain important insights for infrastructure researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers in national governments as we mark ten years, or the ‘decade of delivery’ in which extensive progress toward sustainable development outcomes must be achieved.