THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND FUEL SUPPLY IN 2050: A STUDY OF LOUISIANA, CALIFORNIA, NEW YORK, AND WASHINGTON’S CONVENTIONAL GRID

Climate change due to increased greenhouse gas emissions can impact energy infrastructure in a variety of ways. Climate impacts on power grid reliability in 2050 for Louisiana, California, New York, and Washington were studied in this paper. Projected electric loads, reserve margins, ramping needs, and flexible reserves were calculated for each state in 2050 to form a baseline to analyze the effect of extreme temperatures and drought on electricity generation and fuel supply, which can in turn impact grid reliability. Reduced capacity of natural gas combined cycle power plants from increased heat, combined with increased electrical demand, is projected to affect all states, especially California and Louisiana. These states also are projected to have some of the most severe heat in the country in 2050. Reduced thermal plant capacity from increased cooling water temperatures or low cooling water supply is an issue, however its effects on in-state generation in these states is projected to be minimal. Decreases in hydropower generation are also projected to have minimal effect on all states, however it had the greatest impact on California. Lastly, natural gas supply loss is projected to impact all states, especially Louisiana and California. Overall, geographic location, seasons, time of day, fuel mix, and policy are all factors to be considered when analysing the effects of climate change on the reliability of the power grid.M.S