Disarmament of the IRA and the intensification of the dissident Republicans’ activities (2000-2015)

Despite on-going peace process efforts, which have achieved some progress towards normalization of the situation in Northern Ireland, and disarming of the Provisional IRA conducted in 2005, this region still lives in constant danger of terrorist attacks. Operations of the IRA’s breakaway wings have been intensified after 2007, and despite the Irish National Liberation Army’s termination of the armed struggle in October 2009, the Real IRA (RIRA) and Continuity IRA (CIRA) do not yet show an intention to lay down their arms. Moreover, there are indications that the Real IRA established contacts with al-Qaeda cells in the UK, and that former members of the Provisional IRA joined the dissidents. Particular concern is the public opinion polls which suggest that dissidents enjoy greater support within the Catholic community than previously assumed. Moreover, in July 2012 the dissidents announced unification into a new organization called the “New IRA”. In early 2015 a representative of Northern Ireland Police Bill Kerr announced that dissident groups are planning new attacks on the territory of the United Kingdom on the eve of elections and the centennial celebration of the Easter Uprising. The available data on dissident activities between 2012 and 2015 can not give a definitive answer about the future of a dissident movement. The fact is that the dissidents are “here”, but if they will still be here after 2016 remains to be seen