Stormeksponerte skogbruksareal i norske kommuner : en GIS-basert vurdering

There is little doubt that climate change is upon us and that we have to adapt to this new climate, but the exact consequences is more difficult to predict. On the one side an increase in temperatures may give a more profitable climate for forestry, but it may also increase the number of extreme weather events. Norway is a country with large areas covered by forest and a long coast, exposed to windy conditions. The combination of trees and wind doesn’t necessarily combine well. Insurance compensations paid out in the years since 1980 shows that damage due to storms is the dominant factor in most years. With this in mind, and the fact that we might experience an increase in the intensity of storms in future climate models, this thesis identifies which municipalities in Norway that have productive forest areas that might be at risk and analyse why. By using spatial data that includes average storm hours and productive forest areas, an index has been created that differentiate between high and low exposure. To validate the index, a correlation analysis between insurance compensation and exposed areas on a county level has been used. As a supplement to the correlation analysis, a search through local newspapers in the ten most exposed municipalities has been conducted. The result of the study shows a possible way of mapping storm exposure in Norway. The index shows several clusters of exposed municipalities, identifiable with a strong red colour. Municipalities with low exposure is coloured in bright green. This way of symbolizing makes it easy to visually detect the level of exposure. The validation process showed no significance between the two variables, but this might be due to inconsistency in the dataset, due to large differences in the number of insured forest areas in the different counties. Indications from the local newspapers shows in most cases that storm occur, but forest damage is rarely mentioned