Oligarchy and the Logic of Political Survival in Ukraine

Abstract This paper is an analysis of the political development in Ukraine during the presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky. The paper identifies five independent variables that explains the size and constitution of the winning coalition behind the presidency forming the political output. Through process tracing and using the causal mechanism “The Logic of Political Survival” by de Mesquita et.al (2003) this paper explains why the constitution of the winning coalition supporting the Zelensky presidency is the key driver behind the policy output. The independent variables identified in the analysis are the following: X_1 Nature and origin of private ownership of large enterprises in Ukraine, X_2 Ownership structures of the media, X_3 Weak Party systems, X_4 Weak and politicized judiciary, X_5 Geopolitical influence. The dependent variable, which is summarized in my thesis as “policies that are detrimental to public welfare” consisting of, but not limited to: Y_1: Retroactive removal of green tariffs, hurting investor confidence and compromising Ukraine’s energy security, Y_2: Meddling with the independence of the central bank, Y_3: Pursuing political opponents and presidential predecessor, Y_4: Subverting institutional procedures in favor of coalition members. The paper establishes plausible causal links between the independent variables and the dependent variable and identifies key agents in the process of subverting political processes in Ukraine