An Analysis of the Effects of Technology Readiness Levels on Cost Growth

This research seeks to evaluate the effects of Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) on Cost Growth. It makes use of data from Technology Readiness Assessments (TRA) and Selected Acquisition Reports (SAR) to explore relationships between TRLs at Milestone B and cost growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) and Major Automated Information Systems (MAIS). Programs using higher proportions of critical technologies rated below TRL 7 tend to experience greater cost growth than programs that use more mature technologies. Current DoD doctrine requires TRL 6 to enter Milestone B. The results of this research seek to evaluate the merit of this requirement. TRL usefulness in multiple linear regression models is assessed by comparing against regression models without the use of TRLs. Results indicate relationships between TRL and Cost growth may be driven by omitted variables such as length of EMD phase. A more complete dataset may indicate that TRLs are driving EMD length and provide insight into potential causes of schedule slippage