Developing Infrastructure Adaptation Pathways to Combat Hurricane Intensification: A Coupled Storm Simulation and Economic Modeling Framework for Coastal Installations

Climate change projections suggest intensification of extreme weather events, including hurricanes, is expected throughout the 21st century. This will lead to increased destruction for coastal military bases unless infrastructure resiliency and adaptation measures are implemented. This research focuses on examining the simulation of probabilistic, climate-intensified hurricane events at Eglin Air Force Base. FEMA Hazus models are combined with climate projections for wind Intensity, tide, and sea-level rise to produce an assessment of losses to the installation. Damage estimates and hurricane intensity outputs are downscaled to the facility-level so that climate adaptation signals can be identified. The facility losses and climate signals are used as inputs for a dynamic adaptation pathway model. Utilizing a variety of infrastructure investment strategies, the pathway model is used to calculate the expected benefits, risks, and costs associated with adaptation. Such pathways can be used to inform campus and installation master plans and are vital to reducing coastal bases vulnerability to future hurricane events