COVID-19 mortality rate in Russia: forecasts and reality evaluation

Relevance COVID-19 is an extremely dangerous disease that not only spreads quickly, but is also characterized by a high mortality rate. Therefore, predicting the number of deaths from the new coronavirus is an urgent task. Research objective The aim of the study is to analyze the factors affecting COVID-19 mortality rate in various countries, to predict direct and indirect victims of the pandemic in the Russian Federation, and to estimate additional mortality during the pandemic based on the demographic data. Data and methods The main research method is econometric modeling. Comparison of various data was also applied. The authors’ calculations were based on data from the RSSS, the World Bank, as well as specialized sites with coronavirus statistics in Russia and in the world. Results A predictive estimation of the deceased number of people due to the pandemic in Russia was made. It is confirmed that the deaths proportion of the completed cases of the disease depends on the level of testing. It is shown that the revealed mortality of the disease depends on the proportion of completed cases, on the population age structure, and on how early the pandemic entered the country compared to the other countries. It is determined that the number of additional deaths due to the coronavirus is approximately 31 thousand people. Conclusions The analysis revealed that the relatively low proportion of COVID in Russia is the result of a special approach to the cause of death determination. The mortality rate in Russia in April 2020 was about 3% higher than in April 2019. The share of the deceased health workers in the total coronavirus mortality in the Russian Federation is higher than in the developed countries, which indicates an underestimation of the data on COVID-19 deaths in the Russian Federation, and the unsatisfactory quality of the Russian healthcare system. The number of direct and indirect victims of the pandemic in the Russian Federation at the end of July was approximately 43 thousand people