Taxi Drops Off as Transit Grows amid Ride-Hailing’s Impact on Airport Access in New York

This study investigates the relationship between the introduction of ride-hailing services and 1) taxi trips; 2) AirTrain ridership; and 3) parking transactions at two major New York airports: John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) and LaGuardia Airport (LGA). Using monthly data that span over a decade, this study applies Bayesian structural time series analysis to examine how taxi trips, AirTrain ridership, and parking transactions have changed since the launch of UberX and Lyft, two of the most popular ride-hailing services in New York City. Results suggest that after the launch of the ride-hailing services, the number of taxi trips (both for drop-offs and pick-ups) decreased at both airports from what it would have been in the absence of ride-hailing services, with the decline being more significant for drop-offs. In contrast, AirTrain ridership continued its growing trend after the launch of UberX and Lyft. The number of parking transactions at JFK continued the mild decline that began before the launch of UberX and Lyft. Our findings indicate that high-quality transit services that connect airports with city centers and intermodal terminals could continue to serve as a crucial airport access mode amid the popularity of ride-hailing services. The findings also highlight the mismatch between taxi drop-offs and pick-ups at the airport and the potential revenue loss from parking decline. The contributions of this study are also methodological, as our study demonstrates the application of a novel statistical method to study the effect of an intervention such as ride-hailing services