Predicting environmental factors influencing crop raiding by African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Luangwa Valley, eastern Zambia

Elephant crop raiding is pervasive and widespread in elephant-agriculture landscapes. Due to rare investigations on underlying African elephant (Loxodonta africana) crop raiding processes and patterns, neither reliable predictive models nor empirical evidence on elephant crop raiding parameters are available or adequate to support intervening decisions by susceptible farmers and other stakeholders. By developing predictive models of binary logistic regression and employing questionnaire surveys, we examined the environmental factors influencing occurrence of crop raiding by interrogating effectiveness of counter-measures implemented by local farmers in Luangwa Valley, eastern Zambia. Farm sizes, vegetation types in peripherals of crop fields and types of counter-measures used by local farmers to restrain marauding elephants were the most important elephant crop raiding predictors. Smaller crop fields (.4782.00 } 342.00 m2) were more vulnerable than larger ones. Most crop fields (75.88%, n=236) surrounded by Brachystegia and Acacia dominated vegetation communities were damaged, largely due to high tree fruiting which were elephant attractants. Solar powered electric fences were more effective than other counter-measures. Though traditional methods were prevalent, they were less effective than other counter-measures. It was posited that additional capacity development of local farmers was required particularly, in participatory integrative land use practices to minimize elephant crop raiding.Key words: Predictive models, elephant crop raiding, conservation, Luangwa Valley, Zambia