First attempts for predicting future Salinization in coastal irrigated areas

Salinity contamination of irrigation ground water is a serious worldwide problem. The Mnasra zone, which has an agricultural land area that represents 70% of the total area and its agricultural production reaches12% of the national production, is threatened by a Salinization of underground waters. The ground water available in this region allows the supply of a population of 145 000 inhabitants. We have developed a simple mechanistic simulation model for predicting future Salinization in this ground water. The method adopted to predict the variation of salinity pollution in ground water is the same as the population based on an increase (ordecrease) geometry (geometric series). This work allows preparing for and coping with the environmental pollution that threatens not only humans, but also the fauna and flora of this region. According to this study, we predict an area of 8730 hectares where water will be polluted by the salinity in 2021. These results will have a negative impact at medium and long terms on the agricultural production of this region