ON KNOWLEDGE MATURITY AND BIASED NATURE OF STAGED DECISION MAKING IN A HIGH CONSEQUENCE INDUSTRY

This paper explores and problematizes decision-making in a high-consequence industry which is characterized by the stage-gate process. We showcase that decision-makers do not differentiate between the types of knowledge used for modelling decisions and calculation of risks. This makes them susceptible to incorporating cognitive distortions—biases—into the stage-gate process. We conclude by amending the risk for certain kinds of biases with a knowledge maturity framework in order to outline conditions for pragmatic decision making