Risk factors and prediction models for incident heart failure with reduced and preserved ejection fraction

Abstract: Aims: This study aims to develop the first race‐specific and sex‐specific risk prediction models for heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods and results: We created a cohort of 1.8 million individuals who had an outpatient clinic visit between 2002 and 2007 within the Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System and obtained information on HFpEF, HFrEF, and several risk factors from electronic health records (EHR). Variables were selected for the risk prediction models in a ‘derivation cohort’ that consisted of individuals with baseline date in 2002, 2003, or 2004 using a forward stepwise selection based on a change in C‐index threshold. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in the remaining participants (internal ‘validation cohort’). A total of 66 831 individuals developed HFpEF, and 92 233 developed HFrEF (52 679 and 71 463 in the derivation cohort) over a median of 11.1 years of follow‐up. The HFpEF risk prediction model included age, diabetes, BMI, COPD, previous MI, antihypertensive treatment, SBP, smoking status, atrial fibrillation, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), while the HFrEF model additionally included previous CAD. For the HFpEF model, C‐indices were 0.74 (SE = 0.002) for white men, 0.76 (0.005) for black men, 0.79 (0.015) for white women, and 0.77 (0.026) for black women, compared with 0.72 (0.002), 0.72 (0.004), 0.77 (0.017), and 0.75 (0.028), respectively, for the HFrEF model. These risk prediction models were generally well calibrated in each race‐specific and sex‐specific stratum of the validation cohort. Conclusions: Our race‐specific and sex‐specific risk prediction models, which used easily obtainable clinical variables, can be a useful tool to implement preventive strategies or subtype‐specific prevention trials in the nine million users of the VA healthcare system and the general population after external validation