Cocked, Locked, and Loaded: A Legislative and Policy Diffusion Analysis of Concealed Carry on College Campuses

As mass shootings continue to be an all too common occurrence in the United States, a flurry of state legislatures have debated concealed carry of firearms on college campuses. This study examines state policy decisions on campus carry through the lens of the policy diffusion literature. The first stage of this analysis explores the adoption of campus carry through a logit regression. The second multivariate model examines the types of concealed carry laws across the states through an ordered logit analysis. This study investigates the influence of internal (intrastate) factors as well as external (interstate) determinants. State population density is negatively associated with the adoption of campus concealed carry, but the other internal determinants of state affluence, ideology, legislative professionalism, and minority population are not significant predictors. In relation to problem environment, high gun murder rates are associated with the prohibition of campus carry while low rates are associated with the adoption of such laws. “Gun culture” (measured as the number of gun-related interest groups and the number of gun purchases in a state) is a significant predictor of the adoption of concealed carry but not the types of campus carry laws across the states as captured by gun purchases. On the other hand, gun interest groups are not a significant predictor of the adoption of campus carry or the types of campus carry laws. For external determinants, the number of neighboring adopters was not a useful predictor of the adoption of campus carry. Following the design of Butz et al. (2015) this study also finds the interaction effect of percentage minority population and a dummy variable for the South is positively associated with the adoption of campus concealed carry, as well as the types of campus carry laws, which points to the impact of racial threat on public policy. The second stage of this analysis examines recent state legislative voting behavior in a western adopter (Idaho in 2014), a midwestern adopter (Wisconsin in 2011), and two southern adopters (Texas in 2015 and Georgia in 2017). There are sharp partisan and racial cleavages in the adoption of campus concealed carry with Republican and white legislators most likely to vote for campus carry legislation. The results shed light on political polarization, the subculture of violence, and racial threat in contemporary American politics.Chapter I. INTRODUCTION 1 | | School Shooting that Shocked the Nation 2 | |Response Across the American States. 5 | | Overview of the Study9 | |Chapter II. LITERATURE REVIEW . 10 | | Policy Diffusion Across theAmerican States. 10 | | State Legislative Voting Behavior and Campus Carry 15 | |Chapter III. DATA AND METHODS 21 | | Policy Diffusion Analysis 21 | | State Legislative Voting Behavior27 | |Chapter IV. FINDINGS 29 | | Predicting the Adoption of Campus Carry 29 | | Region and the Types of Campus Carry Laws Adopted 33 | | Predicting the Types of Campus Carry Laws Adopted 37 | | Examining State Legislature Voting Behavior.39 | |Chapter V. DISCUSSIONS . 47 | | Analysis of Hypotheses Key Findings 47 | | Law Enforcement Perspective on Campus Carry53 | | Do Concealed Carry Laws Make Colleges Safer 56 | | Directions for Future Research / Future Developments 57 | |ENDNOTES. 60 | |REFERENCES 61 | |APPENDIX 67 |Knowles, FredLaPlant, JamesKnowles, FredPrine, RudyD.PA.Public Administratio