Cost of Plug-In Electric Vehicle Ownership: The Cost of Transitioning to Five Million Plug-In Vehicles in California

Climate Change Clearinghousehttps://doi.org/10.7922/G257199D2021PDFTech ReportChakraborty, DebapriyaBuch, KoralTal, GilUniversity of California, Davis, Institute of Transportation StudiesNational Center for Sustainable Transportation (NCST)California. Dept. of Transportation. Division of Research, Innovation, and System InformationUnited States. Department of Transportation. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and TechnologyUnited States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) ProgramUniversity of California, Davis. Institute of Transportation StudiesCaliforniaUnited StatesAutomobile ownershipCompetitionCostsElectric vehiclesMarket assessmentVehicle fleetsZero emission vehiclesClimate changeTotal cost of ownershipTeardown analysisMarket segmentsNCST-UCD-RR-21-05Caltrans 65A0686 Task Order 032 USDOT Grant 69A3551747114Final Report (January 2020 \u2013 December 2020)Total cost of ownership (TCO) studies are generally used as a tool to understand how and when plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) technology will reach cost parity with conventional fuel vehicles. Post cost-parity, the PEV market should be able to sustain without government intervention. The researchers present here a detailed analysis of vehicle manufacturing costs and market-level TCO accounting for technology uncertainties, behavioral heterogeneity, and key decision parameters of automakers. Using the estimates of the vehicle manufacturing costs, they estimate the cost of electrification of California\u2019s LDV fleet to achieve the state\u2019s net-zero emission goal by 2045. The results suggest that PEVs may not be cost competitive even in 2030 without stronger policy support and automakers initiative. Moreover, TCO is not a single number, and the cost of electrification will vary across the population based on the cost of vehicles available in the market, their charging capabilities at home and public, and energy costs. The TCO estimates and the cost of fleet electrification analysis not only has important implications for policymakers but can also offer a foundation for understanding the effect of market dynamics on the cost-competitiveness of the PEV technology.113