Time-Based Modeling of Concrete Bridge Deck Deterioration Using Probabilistic Models

US Transportation Collection2021PDFTech ReportGuler, S IRadlinska, AleksandraLu, MHydock, JCenter for Integrated Asset Management for Multimodal Transportation Infrastructure Systems (CIAMTIS)Pennsylvania State University. Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUnited States. Department of Transportation. Research and Innovative Technology AdministrationUnited States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) ProgramCenter for Integrated Asset Management for Multimodal Transportation Infrastructure Systems (CIAMTIS)PennsylvaniaUnited StatesBayes' theoremBridge decksConcrete bridgesDeteriorationForecastingProbabilityService lifeInfrastructure managementBridge deck deteriorationBayesian optimzationCIAM-UTC-REG1069A3551847103Final Report 03/01/2019 \u2013 08/31/2021This research developed a robust, self-learning, probabilistic model to predict the service life of concrete bridge decks and subsequently other infrastructure components. The model originated from the existing performance data for 22,000 bridge decks in the State of Pennsylvania and utilized advanced statistical tools, including Bayesian probabilistic networks. The newly developed tool can allow state departments of transportation to: (1) accurately predict the lifetime of concrete bridge decks, and (2) establish more efficient and accurate management decisions, resulting in increased longevity of the nation\u2019s infrastructure.120