Departure time change to avoid crowd in trains: A stated choice experiment study in the Netherlands in a pandemic context

Crowding in trains during rush hour is known to cause discomfort. After the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, crowding has also been highlighted as a risk factor for catching Acute Respiratory Infections (ARIs) such as COVID-19 which has affected the demand of public transport. Several countries, including the Netherlands, have differential fare systems for peak and off-peak travel, however, the problem of overcrowding in trains is still prevalent and is expected to cause more disutility than before the pandemic. To reduce peak hour rush, change in departure time has proven to be an effective measure. In this research first a review of previous experiments related to valuation of crowding and departure time change is performed. And then an exploratory study based on a stated choice experiment is conducted to understand the extent to which people can be motivated to change departure time to avoid crowded trains during rush hours by offering them real time information on on-board crowding level and a discount on train fare. Unlike previous studies, the respondents are segregated into two groups before the start of choice experiment based on their indicated preference to schedule delay early or late. To study the change in travel behavior in the pandemic time, context of different vaccination stages is provided in the choice experiment. Background information collected in the experiment is broadly categorised as: socio-demographics, travel and work related factors, and attitude towards health and COVID-19. After the responses are analysed it is found that the coefficients obtained for main attributes are highly significant, and in line with previous research. When most of the people are vaccinated in the Netherlands, they may become less averse to on-board crowding. The research also indicates that certain groups of people can be motivated to change their departure time if real-time crowding information is provided to them. Few others can be motivated by offering incentives. However it should be noticed that to allow people to change departure time, policies such as flexible work hours and staggered commute are required in workplaces. Transport, Infrastructure and Logistic