Combining Geophysics and Basin Modeling to Develop a Thermal Model in an Offshore Block, Mexican Gulf of Mexico: Constraining Source Rock Maturity Through OAT Sensitivity Analyses of Key Inputs

The recent discovery of the Zama field in offshore Sureste Basin in the southern Gulf of Mexico has piqued interest in the Mexican petroleum industry regarding the hydrocarbon potential within the region. In this study, a deposition-only thermal model was developed in an area of interest (AOI) in this region. Using structural input obtained from seismic interpretation conducted in Petrel©, the model was constructed and simulated in PetroMod© to acquire initial estimates of the maturity of the Tithonian J100 source rock in the AOI in terms of the maturity parameters Vitrinite Reflectance (%Ro) and Transformation Ratio (TR). A one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis approach was also undertaken to assess the impact of uncertainties in some inputs in isolation on the output maturity in order to identify key uncertain input parameters. Based on the modeling results, at the C-1 well location of interest within the AOI, the source rock was simulated to be within the wet gas generation window based on simulated %Ro values in the present, having emerged into oil window between 41 - 27 Ma (late Eocene-Oligocene) and into the wet gas window between 6 - 0.5Ma (late Miocene-Pleistocene). Across the wider AOI, present-day %Ro values indicate the predominant presence of late oil to wet gas generation windows, with most of the source rock across the AOI having emerged into the oil generation window between 23 Ma and 11.6 Ma (early to middle Miocene). The highest uncertainties in simulated %Ro values were associated with uncertainties in the Bajocian (J60) autochtonous salt sequence thickness distribution and with the maturity models used for model simulation. At the C-1 well location, TR values of 95% to near 100% in the present indicate that most of the kerogen (source rock organic matter) has already been converted into hydrocarbons, with kerogen conversion initiated between 55 - 48 Ma at the location. Across the wider AOI, average present-day TR values in the range of 81 - 97% were simulated. The highest uncertainties in simulated TR values were also associated with uncertainties in the Bajocian (J60) autochtonous salt sequence thickness distribution, and with the source rock maturation kinetics input used for model simulation. The timing of maturation of the J100 source rock at the C-1 well location - assumed to have been constrained by the OAT sensitivity analyses results for simplicity - in relation to the timing of other petroleum system elements and processes indicated by literature, suggests that hydrocarbon accumulations charged from the Tithonian source rock in the reservoir intervals in the well vicinity are possible i.e. presence of hydrocarbon accumulations cannot be ruled out based only on maturation timing considerations.Applied Geophysics | IDEA Leagu