Investigating the Employment Impacts of Renewable Energy in South Africa

This dissertation aims to contribute towards the research on just transitions by providing insight into the extent of the employment impacts caused by a potential energy transition in South Africa. South Africa is in the process of transforming its electricity mix. The majority of electricity is currently sourced from coal-fired power plants. The transition maybe towards an electricity mix that includes more renewable sources of electricity generation, particularly from wind and solar technologies. The degree to which this transition will create and displace jobs is presently unclear. Furthermore, the extent to which these new jobs will be demanded locally or abroad and the implications that this transition will have on decent work is uncertain.The main research question posed at the outset of this dissertation was: What are the possible net employment effects of South Africa’s transition from coal to wind and solar forms of electricity generation? A quantitative method was employed to address this question: an Input-Output Analysis. The I-JEDI input-output model was used, updated with more recent data for South Africa that has more industrial detail. Additionally, a coal displacement vector was created to calculate the jobs displaced due to lack of demand for coal-fired power plants. Hence, the net employment effects were calculated. This quantitative method was supplemented with findings from a series of semi-structured interviews and a workshop with union members to ground the results in some of the realities of South Africa’s socio-political landscape. Two exploratory scenarios were createdthat were simulated in the model, each with their own narrative about South Africa’s future electricity prospects: Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019 scenario and the Ambitious Solar and Wind (ASW) scenario. The IRP 2019 scenario was aligned with the recent government plans to transform the electricity mix. The ASW scenario included higher levels of local manufacturing of solar and wind technologies than currently employed. The results of this research are exploratory, aiming to provide insight into the boundary of what is possible. The main findings suggest that solar and wind may employ significantly more people than currently employed in the coal-fired power plant supply chain considering both operations and maintenance (O&M) and construction activities. O&M jobs numbers for coal-fired power plants are larger than wind and solar under the IRP2019 scenario but are comparable for the ASW scenario. While the results from the model showed promising prospects for employment, it was revealed through the stakeholder interactions and literature that there are several challenges to achieving a just energy transition. In particular, there is the challenge of garnering the support of labour unions and ensuring decent work. It was found that the overall skill levels in terms of education for the different sources of electricity were similar, but there are many other skill considerations required for people to change vocation from the old jobs in coal to new jobs in solar and wind.Engineering and Policy Analysi