Is international tourism responsible for the pandemic of COVID-19? A preliminary cross-country analysis with a special focus on small islands

This article aims at analysing the role of international tourism attractiveness as a potential factor for the outbreak and the spread of the recent COVID-19 disease across the world with a special focus on small island economies. Econometric testing is implemented over a crosscountry sample including 205 countries/territories (with 58 small islands) after controlling for several usual suspects. The results state a positive and significant relationship between COVID-19 prevalence and inbound tourism arrivals per capita. Thus international tourism must be seen as one of the main responsible factors for the recent pandemic, validating the "tourism-led vulnerability hypothesis". Accordingly, this finding suggests that the tourism specialization model in the context of small islands is too vulnerable to be considered as sustainable in the medium and long-run. Policymakers must opt for economic diversification when possible