Recent decadal enhancement of Meiyu–Baiu heavy rainfall over East Asia

Abstract East of Eurasia, moist air is transported poleward, forming the Meiyu–Baiu front over East Asia in late June and early July. Recently, unusually heavy rainfall may have increased, causing catastrophic flooding in East Asia. Here, unique 23-year precipitation satellite radar data confirm recent enhancement in Meiyu–Baiu heavy rainfall from eastern China to southwestern Japan, which is also evident from independent conventional observations. Decadal changes in rainfall have been physically consistent with enhanced transport of water vapour due to the intensified Pacific subtropical high associated with weakened tropical cyclone activity over the Northwest Pacific. Furthermore, the upper-tropospheric trough, associated with wave train along the subtropical jet, influenced Meiyu–Baiu precipitation over East Asia. Long-term and continuous satellite radar observations reveal that the frequency of heavy precipitation along the Meiyu–Baiu front has increased in the last 22 years. In particular, heavy precipitation (10 mm/h) increased by 24% between 1998–2008 and 2009–2019, and the abruptly-changed level likely induced recent meteorological disasters across East Asia. This trend may also explain the severity of the 2020 Meiyu–Baiu season. Over the last decade, this front has likely transitioned to a new climate state, which requires adaptation of disaster prevention approaches