Mathematical models to predict the spread of an epidemic

International audienceInfectious diseases are a historic reality, with violent epidemics affecting people's lives from time to time. In an epidemic, so that public managers and health professionals can better respond to the demands of the affected population, it is necessary to obtain a detailed understanding of the underlying mechanism of spread of the infectious disease. Mathematical models are a fundamental tool in this context, as they are able to provide rational explanations for the spread of the disease and, consequently, predict the intensity of its progress and test the effectiveness of different control strategies. In the context of the COVID epidemic19, these models can be used as decision aid tools, guiding public agents on how to respond optimally to the challenges imposed on civil society by the advancement of the new corona virus. In this presentation we will expose some of the fundamentals of mathematical modeling in epidemics, indicating possible approaches, the respective domains of applicability and limitations, as well as their use to guide decision making