International audienceHawkes processes are a form of self-exciting process that has been used in numerous applications, including neuroscience, seismology, and terrorism. While these self-exciting processes have a simple formulation, they can model incredibly complex phenomena. Traditionally Hawkes processes are a continuous-time process, however we enable these models to be applied to a wider range of problems by considering a discrete-time variant of Hawkes processes. We illustrate this through the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as a substantive case study. While alternative models, such as compartmental and growth curve models, have been widely applied to the COVID-19 epidemic, the use of discrete-time Hawkes processes allows us to...
We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide...
In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model [10], which is suitable for ...
The initial phase dynamics of an epidemic without containment measures is commonly well modelled usi...
Hawkes processes are a form of self-exciting process that has been used in numerous applications, in...
Hawkes processes are a form of self-exciting process that has been used in numerous applications, in...
Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemi...
International audienceThis study looks at the dynamics of a Covid-19 type epidemic with a dual purpo...
The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions sugges...
We constructed a simple Susceptible−Exposed–Infectious–Removed model of the spread of COVID-19. The ...
The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions sugges...
In this paper, we propose a continuous-time stochastic intensity model, namely, two-phase dynamic co...
The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is described through a time-dependent stochastic dynamic mode...
Here we present a discrete-time-evolution model with one day interval to forecast the propagation of...
The pandemic scenery caused by the new coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, increased interest in statist...
In this paper, a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model has been used to track the evolution of th...
We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide...
In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model [10], which is suitable for ...
The initial phase dynamics of an epidemic without containment measures is commonly well modelled usi...
Hawkes processes are a form of self-exciting process that has been used in numerous applications, in...
Hawkes processes are a form of self-exciting process that has been used in numerous applications, in...
Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemi...
International audienceThis study looks at the dynamics of a Covid-19 type epidemic with a dual purpo...
The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions sugges...
We constructed a simple Susceptible−Exposed–Infectious–Removed model of the spread of COVID-19. The ...
The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions sugges...
In this paper, we propose a continuous-time stochastic intensity model, namely, two-phase dynamic co...
The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is described through a time-dependent stochastic dynamic mode...
Here we present a discrete-time-evolution model with one day interval to forecast the propagation of...
The pandemic scenery caused by the new coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, increased interest in statist...
In this paper, a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model has been used to track the evolution of th...
We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide...
In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model [10], which is suitable for ...
The initial phase dynamics of an epidemic without containment measures is commonly well modelled usi...