To Move or Not to Move: Trends in Rental Affordability in the San Francisco Bay Area from 2012 to 2019

Unaffordable housing may cause long commute times and displacement. However, little literature about Bay Area addresses how rental affordability changes through time. Our paper uses a unique methodology to test affordability and find a mismatch between what is happening and what should have happened. We also find that the affordability issue influences the low-income group more than the middle- and high-income group. Another interesting finding is that while rent is increasing rapidly, median household income in bay area is also increasing and even surpass the increase speed of rent, which makes the rental housing seems more affordable. However, this trend can be due to gentrification, where people flow into the bay area with high-paying job offers while people who have low income flow out. In addition, commute time in Bay Area is constantly increasing. If we check the percentage of people moving out of the Bay Area to other parts of California, from 2012 to 2019, the percentage of people leaving the Bay Area has increased. For those who did leave the bay area, the logistic regression model shows that lower-income groups tend to leave, and people in areas with higher rents tend to leave.Bachelor of Art