Decision Structuring and Robustness Analysis in Selecting Urban Transit Alternatives

Public policy-makers in many cities worldwide have recognized the need to seek urban passenger transport solutions in the domain of urban transit systems. However, with the availability of many transit technologies and systems, decision-makers need support in identifying the advantages and disadvantages of each system, and in evaluating their suitability for the specific urban context being considered. In this article, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed as a decision-support methodology for evaluation of urban transit systems. A hierarchy is proposed for the evaluation of system choice, and an illustrative example is presented. The hierarchy reflects overall objectives of transit systems, which include achieving betterment in the urban transport picture and mitigating possible implementation impediments. On the betterment side, the transit system objectives considered in the hierarchy include appropriate level of service and performance, congestion reduction potential, support of economic development, and flexibility. On the other hand, transit system impediment factors comprise system cost, environmental impacts, and implementation and operation barriers. The article demonstrates the value of the proposed approach in decision structuring for selecting among urban transit alternatives and in providing the facility of analyzing the robustness of the decision with respect to various judgments that are made in the selection process