Testing an integrative theory of strongly held beliefs: an analysis of support for Donald Trump in the 2020 U.S. presidential election

Roseman (1994) proposed a theory outlining the structure of strongly held beliefs, describing them as having a narrative-like structure containing evaluative, identificational, behavioral, normative, and explanatory components. The theory was also elaborated by Roseman, Steele, and Goodvin (2019) to include the influence of emotions on belief strength. In this study, we aimed to accomplish two things: 1) test the predictions of this narrative theory model by exploring American voters’ support for the incumbent President, Donald Trump, in the 2020 U.S. presidential election; and 2) test the efficacy of new general-level measures of the belief components to account for individual differences. We used a collection of survey items to measure endorsement of each of the belief components as manifest in participants’ beliefs about Donald Trump. We also included items measuring discrete emotions towards Donald Trump and his opponent in the race, Joe Biden. The survey was distributed to two national samples of registered voters chosen to match U.S. Census demographics in the weeks immediately before and after the 2020 election. It was found that each measure of the belief components was associated with participants’ self-reported support for Donald Trump, although different subsets of components were associated with voting for Trump between the two samples. The emotions of enthusiasm, pride, anger, contempt, and embarrassment also were associated with participants’ support for Trump. Regarding the new measures tested, results showed that each was associated with support for Donald Trump, although the strength of these associations varied considerably. Implications, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.M.A.Includes bibliographical reference