Ignoring the messenger? Limits of populist rhetoric on public support for foreign development aid

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Oxford University Press via the DOI in this record The data used in this paper can be found at ISQ Dataverse.The negative impact of populist anti-aid rhetoric on public opinion has been based on anecdotal reports to date. Here, we take a systematic and empirical look at this inquiry. We hypothesize that even though populist rhetoric decreases support for foreign development aid in donor publics, this effect is conditioned by individuals’ preexisting beliefs about populist leaders. Using data from original survey experiments conducted with representative samples of American and British adults, we find that exposure to different variants of populist frames decreases individuals’ willingness to support their government providing development aid through an international organization. However, this effect is moderated by whether people think populist leaders stand up for the little guy or scapegoat out-groups. Connecting foreign aid and populism literatures, our results suggest that the future of global development might not be as bleak as previously feared in the age of populism.Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)Fritz Thyssen FoundationUniversity of Exete