Can a Warm Ocean Feature Cause a Typhoon to Intensify Rapidly?

The hypothesis that a warm ocean feature (WOF) such as a warm eddy may cause a passing typhoon to undergo rapid intensification (RI), that is, the storm’s maximum 1-min wind speed at 10-m height increases by more than 15.4 m/s in 1 day, is of interest to forecasters. Testing the hypothesis is a challenge, however. Besides the storm’s internal dynamics, typhoon intensity depends on other environmental factors such as vertical wind shear and storm translation. Here we designed numerical experiments that exclude these other factors, retaining only the WOF’s influence on the storm’s intensity change. We use a storm’s translation speed Uh = 5 m/s when surface cooling is predominantly due to 1D vertical mixing. Observations have shown that the vast majority (70%) of RI events occur in storms that translate between 3 to 7 m/s. We conducted a large ensemble of twin experiments with and without ocean feedback and with and without the WOF to estimate model uncertainty due to internal variability. The results show that the WOF increases surface enthalpy flux and moisture convergence in the storm’s core, resulting in stronger updrafts and intensity. However, the intensification rate is, in general, insufficiently rapid. Consequently, the number of RIs is not statistically significantly different between simulations with and without the WOF. An analytical coupled model supports the numerical findings. Furthermore, it shows that WOF-induced RI can develop only over eddies and ambient waters that are a few °C warmer than presently observed in the ocean