Human security in Albania, with a case study on the energy crisis problems and implications upon human security

International audienceFollowing the crisis of 1997 Albania has experienced considerable macro economic stability. However, as experience has shown macro economic stability is not necessarily a sufficient condition for political and social stability. Furthermore, in the Albanian case macro economic stability has not yet produced prosperity and economic well being at the family and individual level. The motivation for the production of an early warning report was that relevant qualitative research was not being done on a consistent basis and as such, no trend or dynamic conclusions could be drawn to inform response strategies and pro-active decision-making. The main goal of the Early Warning reports is to develop an analytical framework in which potential factors that could cause instability in Albania could be measured. It is through this framework that data gathered and the analysis of early warning information would be brought to all interested parties, such as the government, media, civil society and international organizations so that appropriate measures can be taken. However, the main target group of this reporting process will be the government of Albania at the central and local level to enable the formulation of timely and pro-active policies dealing with the identified concerns. Unlike the previous two attempts at Early Warning Reporting, which were largely thematic in their focus, this revised Report format will emphasize the establishment of an effective monitoring system. The first Albanian Early Warning Report was written after the Kosovo crisis. Since elections have proven to be conflict generating events during the past decade in Albania, the second report focused on political risk assessment of the 2001 pre-electoral situation in the country. The situation is now slightly different as the country is recovering and has made considerable improvements in terms of political and economic stability. The challenge now is to adapt an Early Warning tool for crisis prevention in a post-crisis country that is no longer under emergency conditions. The Albanian Early Warning System will develop an appropriate methodology for the Albanian context through the lens of human security. Human security is a very broad concept that encompasses economic, social and political security. Therefore, human insecurity as a precondition to human development can be considered as the main source of potential crises situations. In order to better assess the levels of human security in Albania, monitoring indicators will focus increasingly on macro to micro developments and from the national to local level. The increased focus on micro developments is necessary in order to accurately assess personal security levels. It is only in this way that potential crises areas can be identified and recommendations be produced accordingly. This is even more necessary in the Albanian context given the large internal migration rates and the growing regional disparities the latter having a negative implication on future levels of human security and economic development in Albania. The way the report is compiled and the data has been monitored offers a baseline upon which quarterly reports will be developed in order to formulate a trend analysis. Qualitative and quantitative indicators and analyses will be used in a complementary fashion. The assessment of human security concerns will be conducted based on four main reporting instruments that consist of research, case studies, national surveys and round tables. Specific data will be provided on indicators that have been monitored by AIIS, as well as quarterly statistical data issued by the Albanian Institute of Statistics (INSTAT), the Bank of Albania and primary data that comes from the two nation- wide surveys organized by AIIS, with the cooperation of INSTAT (one already organized at the beginning of the project in September 2003 and the second to be carried out a year after. The information reported here is largely based on the findings of the survey conducted by which was especially designed for the purposes of this study in cooperation with UNDP Albania