A Systematic Technology Forecasting Approach for New and Emerging Science and Technology: Case Study of Nano-Enhanced Biosensors

Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy 2009This presentation was part of the session : Roundtables on Methods, Measures, and DataThis material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder. ©2009 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE.This paper addresses the topic of anticipating likely development paths for a particular "New and Emerging Science & Technology" (NES&T). Characteristics of NES&T -- technological uncertainty and contextual dynamics -- pose challenges for technology management and forecasting practices. Researchers, technologists, R&D managers, staff in funding agencies and policy makers "need to know" future prospects. This requires better ways to capture NES&T development patterns, within their socio-economic context, as well as likely innovation opportunities. A new technology forecasting framework for NES&Ts is presented, supported by a case study of nano-enhanced biosensors.Beijing Institute of Technolog