Aggregating forecasts to obtain fuzzy demands

Ülengin, Füsun (Dogus Author) -- Conference full title: Computational Intelligence in Decision and Control - 8th International FLINS Conference; Madrid; Spain; 21 September 2008 through 24 SeptemberThere are several studies in the literature that assumes fuzzy demands in supply chain or production planning models but most of them do not mention about how to derive the fuzzy demands from statistical and judgmental forecasts. In this study we propose a methodology to aggregate the forecasts coming based on different sources; namely statistical methods as well as the experts judgments, and to obtain an aggregated demand forecast that is represented by a possibilistic distribution. Results of the statistical and judgmental forecasts are represented by triangular possibilistic distributions. Subsequently, those results are combined by using weights of each input forecast. An illustrative example is also provided