A Method for Scenario-based Risk Assessment for Robust Aerospace Systems

A methodology for the conceptual design phase risk assessment of an aerospace system was proposed. The method was designed to examine political, social, and economic risk over a systems lifecycle through the use of future scenarios to bound uncertainty. A decision support framework was developed to allow the user to visualize the differences in performance and economic metrics between design options as well as allowing the user to visualize the effects of mitigating certain risks. A historical proof of concept was developed to test the methodology. The results indicated that the new method will work to examine political, social, and economic risk during conceptual level design, and that this information can be used to aid in design down-selection and decision making. The use of scenario-based analysis as an alternative to traditional probabilistic analysis allowed for better traceability and bounding of uncertainty. Other findings regarding the use of a risk analysis early during concept design and future work are also discussed.Ph.D.Committee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Hollingsworth, Peter; Committee Member: Kirby, Michelle; Committee Member: Schrage, Daniel; Committee Member: Seng, Gary; Committee Member: Volovoi, Vital