THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEGREE OF BLOOD PRESSURE REDUCTION AND MORTALITY AMONG HYPERTENSIVES IN THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between degree of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reduction and mortality was examined among hypertensives, ages 30-69, in the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center community-based trial, which followed 10,940 hypertensive participants for five years. One-year survival was required for inclusion in this investigation since the one-year annual visit was the first occasion where change in blood pressure could be measured on all participants. During the subsequent four years of follow-up on 10,052 participants, 568 deaths occurred. For levels of change in DBP and for categories of variables related to mortality, the crude mortality rate was calculated. Time-dependent life tables were also calculated so as to utilize available blood pressure data over time. In addition, the Cox life table regression model, extended to take into account both time-constant and time-dependent covariates, was used to examine the relationship change in blood pressure over time and mortality. The results of the time-dependent life table and time-dependent Cox life table regression analyses supported the existence of a quadratic function which modeled the relationship between DBP reduction and mortality, even after adjusting for other risk factors. The minimum mortality hazard ratio, based on a particular model, occurred at a DBP reduction of 22.6 mm Hg (standard error = 10.6) in the whole population and 8.5 mm Hg (standard error = 4.6) in the baseline DBP stratum 90-104. After this reduction, there was a small increase in the risk of death. There was not evidence of the quadratic function after fitting the same model using systolic blood pressure. Methodologic issues involved in studying a particular degree of blood pressure reduction were considered. The confidence interval around the change corresponding to the minimum hazard ratio was wide and the obtained blood pressure level should not be interpreted as a goal for treatment. Blood pressure reduction was attributed, not only to pharmacologic therapy, but also to regression to the mean, and to other unknown factors unrelated to treatment. Therefore, the surprising results of this study do not provide direct implications for treatment, but strongly suggest replication in other populations