Emerging bioeconomy : Assessing the implications of advanced bioenergy and biochemicals with bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches

Biomass is expected to play a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions holding global temperature rise to well below 2oC, as agreed on at the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris. The diversity of biomass production systems (feedstocks, regions, end-uses) and their varying performance from an environmental and (macro-)economic perspective requires a systematic assessment of biomass applications for energy and materials. Increasingly, advances on biomass conversion technologies offer alternatives to sectors that have few or no other renewable alternative options such as to the chemical or the aviation industry. While the role of bioenergy in climate change mitigation has received a lot of attention, so far these advanced biomass applications have not been systematically addressed by literature. On the one hand, there are uncertainties on their potential deployment levels and on the other hand on how energy systems dynamics and greenhouse gas emission reduction efforts may be affected. Towards the increasingly advanced uses and the large volumes of biomass required to meet climate targets, the need to understand the implications of emerging bioeconomy is crucial. The starting points of this dissertation are the following research questions: (a) what are current and potential mid-term environmental implications of biofuels and biochemical applications, (b) what is the potential size and contribution of bioeconomy in a national energy system in pursuing mid-term climate change mitigation targets, (c) what are the potential mid-term economic implications of bioeconomy developments at a national level and (d) how can tools and methods for assessing current and mid-term bioeconomy developments be improved. To shed light into the environmental impacts of advanced biochemicals, this dissertation applies life cycle assessment on existing bioplastics supply chains, namely bioplastics from Brazilian and Indian sugarcane ethanol. The potential for large-scale bioeconomy developments is assessed by extending an energy systems model of the Netherlands to include detailed representation of biomass cost and supply, and emerging sectors such as advanced biofuels and biochemicals. Scenario analysis is performed for different technological development pathways, biomass cost-supply and fossil fuel price scenarios to 2030. The macro-economic impacts of large-scale bioeconomy developments in the Netherlands to 2030 are assessed using a macro-economic top down model. The results show that bioplastics may offer savings on greenhouse gas emissions and fossil resource use, compared to their petrochemical counterparts. However, the use of fossil fuel in bio-based production systems needs to be reduced as their use may lead to comparable or higher greenhouse gas emissions compared to fossil fuel-based plastics. In the Netherlands, biochemicals are shown to be cost-competitive in the mid-term, if old petrochemical production capacity is phased out and fossil fuel prices are as anticipated by business-as-usual scenarios. Under existing policies, the Netherlands reduce their greenhouse gas emissions but fail to achieve the necessary emission reduction, in line with their committed targets. Efforts need to intensify, and even under an ambitious carbon tax, rapid technological development of advanced biomass conversion technologies, and carbon capture and storage are required for deep emission reduction. In the long term, large-scale bioeconomy developments may benefit the Netherlands by leading to higher economic returns and reduce downward trends in employment and trade balance. However, low technology development, high fossil fuel prices and/or high biomass prices impede achieving the emission reduction targets. In light of the above, advanced biomass uses may offer benefits, if stricter targets and stimulating policies on renewable energy and bioeconomy are considered. To valorise opportunities and minimise risks efforts are required to ensure sustainable and low-cost supply of biomass, promote sustainable bioenergy and biochemical pathways and stimulate co-operation across different end-use sectors of bioenergy